Jump Trading Takes Equity Stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket

What Led To Jump Trading Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have rapidly evolved from niche betting platforms into a high-volume asset class. This transformation accelerated during major global events, particularly the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which drove unprecedented user participation and trading activity. As interest expanded into sports, economics, and real-time forecasting, Jump Trading prediction markets exposure aligned with a clear growth trend.

Against this backdrop, Kalshi and Polymarket saw dramatic volume growth. In January 2026, sector-wide monthly trading volume reached approximately $17.21 billion. Kalshi alone processed around $9.55 billion during that month, up sharply from about $175 million one year earlier.

However, this growth revealed a structural challenge. Liquidity on many prediction markets remained inconsistent and heavily dependent on retail participation. During periods of high volatility, spreads widened and larger trades often moved prices significantly. Consequently, platforms began seeking professional market makers to deliver tighter spreads, deeper order books, and a more reliable trading experience.

Similar Institutional Moves

Importantly, Jump’s move follows earlier institutional involvement. In April 2024, Susquehanna International Group became one of the first major market makers on Kalshi. That partnership significantly improved liquidity, delivering up to 30 times more depth in supported markets and meaningfully tighter spreads.

Following this, firms such as DRW and Galaxy Digital explored or launched prediction market initiatives. Jump itself had already begun quietly providing liquidity on Kalshi in late 2025. However, Jump Trading prediction markets deals stand out because they include equity incentives rather than pure market-making arrangements.

Jump Trading Predictions Markets Structure

Under the current agreements, Jump will act as a committed market maker. It will continuously quote prices, absorb order flow, and reduce slippage for traders.

The Kalshi deal offers Jump stable ownership in a fully regulated U.S. exchange. In contrast, the Polymarket structure directly links equity accumulation to liquidity performance. This approach aligns incentives closely, encouraging Jump to scale its involvement as platform activity grows.

For the platforms, the model secures high-quality liquidity without large upfront cash costs. For Jump, it provides long-term upside exposure to a fast-growing sector that complements its expertise in quantitative trading, crypto, and traditional markets.

Future Implications

The involvement of a firm like Jump could materially improve market efficiency. Deeper liquidity should reduce slippage, improve price discovery, and make prediction markets more attractive to institutional participants seeking to hedge event-driven risks or extract probabilistic signals.

More broadly, analysts view this development as further validation that prediction markets are maturing into mainstream financial infrastructure. While regulatory scrutiny and insider-risk concerns remain, deals like this accelerate professionalization.