ONDO Faces Supply Shock After $774M Token Unlock

What Happened?

On January 18, 2026, at 12:00 UTC, Ondo Finance unlocked approximately 1.94 billion ONDO tokens. Based on prevailing prices, the release was valued at roughly $774 million.

The unlock increased ONDO’s circulating supply by close to 60 percent. The distribution followed Ondo’s preset vesting schedule and included allocations for protocol development, ecosystem incentives, and private investors.

Source : Defillama

According to Tokenomist data, around 825 million tokens went to development, 792 million to ecosystem expansion, and roughly 322 million to private sale investors. Many of these investors acquired tokens at prices far below current levels.

Following the unlock, ONDO traded near $0.38, down from recent highs. Trading volumes rose sharply, reaching an estimated $50 to $80 million per day.

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Why This Matters

For the market, the unlock introduces near-term supply pressure. A large portion of the released tokens sits in the hands of early investors and contributors, increasing the risk of sell-side activity.

For traders, historical context matters. Previous Ondo unlocks in 2024 and 2025 led to drawdowns ranging from 25 to 40 percent, including a deeper decline after last year’s major cliff event. This history shapes current expectations.

For long-term holders, the unlock does not change Ondo’s core business model. The platform continues to focus on real-world asset tokenization, including tokenized U.S. Treasuries and stable yield products.

At a broader level, the event highlights an ongoing tension in crypto tokenomics. Strong narratives and real revenue can still face pressure when large unlocks hit thin markets.

Market or Ecosystem Context

Ondo Finance remains one of the most prominent players in the RWA sector. Its total value locked recently reached $2 billion, doubling in less than a year. Growth has come from institutional-facing products and partnerships with traditional finance firms.

The project is also expanding into tokenized equities on Solana, with early tests involving assets like Nvidia and Apple. Ondo plans to showcase this progress at its upcoming Ondo Summit on February 3, which will feature participants from major financial institutions.

The unlock also arrives during a broader wave of January token releases, totaling more than $5.5 billion across multiple projects. This backdrop increases sensitivity to supply shocks, even for fundamentally strong protocols.

What readers should watch next?

Following this unlock, the key question is whether supply gets absorbed fast enough to keep the RWA narrative intact. The February 3 Ondo Summit in NYC, featuring institutions like BlackRock and JPMorgan, could act as a decisive sentiment catalyst if it delivers concrete updates on tokenized ETFs or stocks. Early Q1 Solana integration and upcoming DAO discussions around supply normalization and ecosystem grants will further shape expectations. On the downside, heavy whale distributions or a TVL slip below $1.8B would reinforce bearish pressure.

Conversely, sustained trading volume above $100M with price holding over $0.40, paired with regulatory or institutional validation from the summit, would signal a shift back toward a bullish trajectory for Ondo Finance.

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