SUI Token Unlock Looms: Price Volatility Expected Amid Market Struggles

The SUI blockchain has undergone a major supply event, with 64.19 million SUI tokens worth approximately $148.29 million unlocked on April 1. The release has heightened concerns about potential selling pressure and its impact on SUI’s price.

Token Unlock: Immediate Market Impact

According to Tokenimist, the recent unlock represented 2.03% of SUI’s circulating supply, which currently stands at 3.17 billion SUI. Despite the new addition, only 31.7% of the 10 billion maximum supply has been unlocked so far, indicating that more emissions are likely in the future.

Following the unlock, SUI’s price has been under pressure. The token is currently trading around $2.32, aligning with the 20-day simple moving average. Resistance levels are noted at $2.37, with subsequent barriers at $2.64 and $2.78. On the downside, support has been identified at $2.23, with a potential decline to $2.00 if selling pressure intensifies.

Technical Indicators Signal Uncertainty

SUI’s technical outlook remains mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently jumped from 29.38 to 58.94, indicating a strong rebound in buying momentum. However, it failed to break above the critical 60 mark, reflecting lingering buyer hesitation. The inability to cross this level suggests that bulls are not fully in control despite the recovery.

The Ichimoku Cloud chart shows that SUI is pressing against the edge of the Kumo (cloud), indicating an attempt at a breakout. However, the thick, red cloud still poses significant resistance, hinting at a lack of sustained upward momentum. The Tenkan-sen line has crossed above the Kijun-sen, which typically signals a bullish trend, but the price needs to break decisively above the cloud to confirm a trend reversal.

On the positive side, a potential golden cross is forming on the EMA lines. This occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one, usually indicating bullish momentum. However, SUI must overcome the $2.50 resistance level to solidify this trend.

DeFi Ecosystem Activity and Challenges

Despite the token unlock, the SUI decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has shown notable activity. Monthly decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume reached $5 billion, reflecting continued interest. The stablecoin market capitalization within SUI has also grown, nearly doubling from $370 million in December to $628 million as of March 31.

However, the total value locked (TVL) within SUI’s ecosystem has dropped amid the broader market downturn. TVL decreased from a high of $2.08 billion in January to $1.2 billion, according to DefiLlama.

Market Sentiment and Price Outlook

Following the unlock, SUI’s price is showing signs of consolidation. The token is hovering around the 20-day simple moving average of $2.32. If buyers manage to defend the critical $2.23 support level, consolidation might continue with a potential retest of the $2.37 resistance. However, if selling pressure increases, the price may drop toward the $2.00 mark.

Some positive developments might counterbalance the bearish sentiment. Canary Capital’s filing for a SUI-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the blockchain surpassing 100 million total accounts could support long-term confidence. If buying pressure increases, SUI could potentially move past $2.37 and test the next resistance at $2.64.

What It Means For You [NFA]

The recent SUI token unlock has increased supply and may lead to short-term volatility. Traders should keep an eye on key resistance levels at $2.37 and $2.50 for potential breakouts. On the downside, the $2.23 support level remains crucial—falling below it could trigger a decline toward $2.00.

Given the mixed technical signals and uncertain market sentiment, it’s important to stay cautious and monitor volume trends closely. Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice (NFA). Always do your own research before investing.

Community Reaction

The community had very mix reactions to the unlock and especially to the price of $SUI. Some were optimistic while most were confused on what turn the price might take after $SUI ‘s struggles at the resistance levels.

• Jerekid: “Does the mean the price of sui will pump or dump”
• Joshua: “A believer in @SuiNetwork“
• Froggy: “$SUI‘s upcoming token unlock has many watching closely, but the ecosystem is thriving. DEX volume hit $5B, stablecoin supply is growing, and $Sui now boasts 100M+ accounts. With key support at $2.2 and momentum indicators nearing a bounce, a move toward $2.8+ isn’t off the table. But first, I’ll be watching for confirmation of a bounce.”