Trump’s Tariff Likely to Be Struck Down by Supreme Court

Despite those rulings, Trump’s tariff remained in effect during appeals, which allowed the dispute to advance to the Supreme Court of the United States. Meanwhile, Polymarket traders assign a 76% chance that the court overturns and more than $2 million in trading volume reinforces investor expectations of a ruling against the administration.

Why Polymarket Signals High Conviction

Polymarket has become a real-time sentiment gauge for political and legal outcomes. In this case, traders assign only a 24% chance that the court upholds the tariffs. That imbalance shows strong confidence that the Supreme Court will strike down Trump tariffs outcome will prevail.

Importantly, traders factor in recent oral arguments from November 2025. They also weighed prior rulings that questioned the scope of emergency powers. Together, these signals push odds sharply toward invalidation.

A ruling against the tariffs could force refunds exceeding $133.5 billion already collected from importers. As a result, federal finances would face immediate strain. At the same time, budget projections would lose nearly $3 trillion in expected deficit reduction over the next decade.

Supporters argue tariffs boosted domestic manufacturing and pressured trade partners like China. Critics counter that they raised consumer prices and input costs. Therefore, the decision could reset inflation dynamics and alter supply chain planning.

Market Reaction to Trump’s Tariff

Markets already price in volatility. Equity traders watch indexes like the S&P 500 for sudden swings. Bond markets also react as inflation expectations shift. Meanwhile, some investors see refund payments as short-term liquidity injections.

At the same time, rate traders reassess policy paths at the Federal Reserve. If tariffs disappear, import costs may fall. That scenario could support earlier rate cuts. Still, uncertainty remains high ahead of the ruling.

What Comes Next for Trade Policy

Even if the court strikes trump’s tariff down, presidents retain other tools. Trump could pursue Section 232 tariffs or seek congressional backing for narrower measures. However, those routes take longer and face tighter limits.

Over time, removing duties could cool inflation and support broader equity participation beyond tech. Yet, it may also widen trade deficits and invite retaliation. Consequently, policy debates will likely continue well beyond the ruling.