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Bitcoin breaks below its 50-day SMA for the first time in 2 years, sparking fears of a deeper correction amid fading ETF inflows.
Author: Chirag Sharma
Published On: Tue, 04 Nov 2025 18:19:59 GMT
November 4, 2025 â Bitcoin has fallen below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March 2025, signaling potential short-term weakness in an otherwise extended bull run. The worldâs largest cryptocurrency trades near $101,000, down 5% in 24 hours, with analysts now watching the $99,000â$100,000 zone as the next major support. The Bitcoin 50-day SMA, currently around $102,200, had served as a key dynamic floor throughout the year, guiding BTCâs rally from $66,000 to record highs above $111,000. Breaking below this trendline suggests short-term momentum has flipped bearish, echoing previous corrections that preceded larger consolidations.
The Bitcoin 50-day SMA acts as a short-term trend barometer, smoothing recent price action to highlight shifts in market momentum.
During bull runs, BTC tends to stay above this lineâeach retest offering buying opportunities for swing traders. In 2024 and early 2025, it consistently served as a springboard for new highs.
Now, as BTC closes decisively below it, technical traders interpret this as a signal of fading buying pressure. Historically, similar crossoversâsuch as those in April 2022 and August 2023âpreceded 10â20% pullbacks before new uptrends resumed.
Short-term moving averages like the 50-day often reflect emotional sentiment, making this breakdown an early warning rather than a confirmed reversal. Still, the marketâs reaction suggests traders are turning defensive.
Weekly charts highlight how Bitcoinâs latest candles sliced below the 50-day SMA, turning prior support into resistance. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD have both cooled from overbought levels, while daily volume spikes confirm profit-taking among leveraged traders.
The next key zone lies near $99,000, aligning with the 200-day SMAâa longer-term level that has historically defined Bitcoinâs bull/bear boundary. A decisive close above $105,000 would negate the bearish bias and signal a potential rebound toward $111,000, while a failure could open the door to deeper retracements.
Compared to 2022, when a similar breakdown triggered a 65% collapse, todayâs setup appears more contained. ETF inflows of $19.4B year-to-date and robust on-chain accumulation provide a safety net, even as momentum cools.
Institutional sentiment has shifted notably. BlackRockâs iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $500 million in outflows last weekâthe largest since mid-2025âwhile Fidelityâs FBTC reported stagnant flows. Altcoins followed Bitcoinâs lead: Ethereum fell 6%, Solana 10%, and Avalanche 7%, amplifying short-term fear.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 42 (âFearâ), and #BTC50DaySMA trended on X as traders debated whether this signals an entry opportunity or a cautionary red flag. Historically, November brings volatility but also strong rebounds; BTC has averaged +38% monthly gains since 2015.
If Bitcoin can reclaim the 50-day SMA within a week, analysts believe the bull trend remains intact. Otherwise, a slide toward $98Kâ$99K could test trader conviction ahead of the November 13 CPI release and Decemberâs Fed decision.
Real voices. Real reactions.
#Bitcoin breaks below $101K and is testing key support levels as momentum shifts bearish heading into November. https://t.co/lQhnfo8AN9
BTC just slipped under $101K and the Fear & Greed Index hit 21 = Extreme Fear. Timelineâs pure panic. Liquidations, ETF outflows, stablecoins piling up. Everyoneâs scared to buy. But history says⌠this is usually where smart money starts loading. When fearâs maxed out, https://t.co/07H9Z3f9m2
This is absolutely crazy BTC is back to $101k. Will this continue to go lower, or maybe this is the bottom of the correction at the end of this year? #BTCUSDT #CryptoMarket https://t.co/TQDUBe16R7
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