Vitalik Predicts Quantum Computers to Crack Bitcoin by 2028

Ethereum co founder Vitalik Buterin has sent the entire crypto market into panic mode after warning that quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s security by 2028. His statement, delivered during a blockchain summit on November 18, has sparked debate across X and reignited fears about the long term safety of digital assets. The vitalik quantum alert highlights growing concerns around early qubit breakthroughs, rushed research timelines, and the slow upgrade path of Bitcoin’s protocol.

Vitalik argues that quantum machines advancing faster than expected could expose billions of dollars in BTC, especially older wallets using legacy address formats. With the crypto community debating mitigation strategies, the vitalik quantum discussion has become the week’s biggest headline.

The Truth Behind The Vitalik Quantum Speech

Exact Quote: “Elliptic curves are going to die,” Buterin said, pointing to a prediction that the ability of quantum computing to break Ethereum’s underlying security model could come before the next US presidential election in 2028.

Context: This came at the end of a talk on Ethereum’s future and “ossification” (stabilizing the base layer while innovating elsewhere) during the Devconnect conference in Buenos Aires on November 13, 2025. He was advocating for Ethereum to prepare for inevitable changes at the protocol’s edges, like upgrading signatures, due to looming threats like quantum computing. Elliptic curves (specifically secp256k1 in ECDSA signatures) are central to securing private keys and transactions in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, so a break would expose dormant addresses and enable forgery of signatures if not mitigated.

Broader View from Buterin: In related discussions, he has estimated a 10-20% chance of cryptographically relevant quantum computers emerging by 2030 (based on Metaculus forecasts), emphasizing proactive steps like account abstraction (EIP-4337/7701) and hash-based signatures (e.g., STARKs) to future-proof wallets. He has long advocated quantum-resistant designs, dating back to 2017 code prototypes.

Why Vitalik on Quantum Computing Sounds the Alarm?

Vitalik Buterin did not mince words. According to his assessment, a functional quantum computer could decrypt Bitcoin private keys in hours instead of millennia. This makes the vitalik quantum scenario especially dangerous for older wallets holding billions in BTC where public keys were already revealed through past transactions.

Rough estimates place 200 to 250 billion dollars of BTC at immediate risk. That includes early pay to public key addresses which remain exposed because they were created before modern best practices existed. Lattice based cryptography and hash based signatures are potential replacements, but Bitcoin’s slow governance structure limits rapid upgrades.

Developers are already debating soft forks, address rotations, and progressive wallet migrations to ensure safety before quantum machines reach a tipping point. BTC holders are advised to use fresh addresses and modern hardware wallets as stop gap precautions.

How It Breaks Crypto ?

To understand the threat, one must understand why quantum computing is different. Qubits operate in superposition, allowing calculations that would take classical computers billions of years to be solved in hours. Shor’s algorithm specifically targets the mathematical assumptions behind ECDSA, allowing private keys to be reconstructed from public data.

A 4,000 qubit stable machine is enough to break 256 bit elliptic curve signatures. IBM and Google have both published roadmaps suggesting this milestone could arrive sooner than expected. This makes the vitalik quantum discussion urgent rather than theoretical.

Ethereum is already researching quantum safe modules, but the Bitcoin ecosystem needs consensus wide upgrades before any migration can realistically take place. Until then, exposed keys remain a ticking time bomb.

Echoes of Caution: Expert Voices on Quantum Risks

The Talk

Real voices. Real reactions.

Sentiment on Social Media: 👍

KOLsMediaCommunity

LOW

@TedPillows if quantum breaks ECC, the whole internet dies before ETH does

"Vitalik Buterin warned that elliptic curve cryptography could be broken by quantum computing before the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Urging $ETH to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography within four years. What are your thoughts?"— @

bombino

@realbombino

about 14 hours ago

LOW

$ETH Founder Vitalik Buterin Says Quantum Computers Could Break Ethereum and Bitcoin by 2028. Hold Your $PI Coin.

Kosasi Nakamoto

@KOSASI_NAKAMOTO

about 17 hours ago

LOW

@TedPillows There are many classes of quantum-resistant (post-quantum) cryptography, such as: • Lattice-based crypto (CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium) • Hash-based signatures (XMSS) • Multivariate polynomial signatures • Code-based crypto (McEliece) These have been studied for 20+ years and

"Vitalik Buterin warned that elliptic curve cryptography could be broken by quantum computing before the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Urging $ETH to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography within four years. What are your thoughts?"— @

Rob McCracken

@Rob_McCracken

about 12 hours ago