Arthur Hayes Warns of Tether Solvency Risk as Rate Cuts Loom

30th November 2025 – BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reignited debate around Tether ’s financial stability. In public comments, he criticized the stablecoin issuer’s shift toward riskier reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin. Hayes warned that this change could lead to solvency risks, especially if market prices drop.

Tether’s New Strategy

Tether currently holds around $178.8 billion in total reserves. Of this, about $97.5 billion is in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries. These instruments generated billions in profits during 2025 due to high interest rates.

However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut rates, Tether appears to be hedging. Its Q3 2025 attestation report, released in late November, shows increased exposure to gold and Bitcoin. Hayes argued this move exposes Tether’s equity buffer, estimated at $6.5 billion to market volatility.

The Core Risk

According to Hayes, a 30% drop in both gold and Bitcoin would significantly damage Tether’s reserve value. This could potentially eliminate its equity buffer. While such a scenario wouldn’t cause an instant USDT collapse, it could trigger large-scale redemptions.

Hayes emphasized the importance of real-time balance sheet transparency. He predicted that major exchanges and holders would demand this going forward. Meanwhile, S&P Global has also raised concerns about Tether’s reserve composition in past reports.

Tether’s Current Holdings

Tether’s asset breakdown (as of Q3 2025) includes:

• Cash & Equivalents: ~$97.5B (54%)
• Corporate Bonds & Funds: ~$50.2B (28%)
• Precious Metals (Gold): ~$4.8B (3%)
• Bitcoin Holdings: ~$1.2B (0.7%)
• Other Secured Loans: ~$25.1B (14%)

Notably, Tether now holds approximately 44,000 ounces of gold, valued at $2,700 per ounce, and 25,000 BTC, valued at $48,000 each. These assets, although a small percentage of total reserves, create new vulnerabilities. Hayes believes a synchronized drop in both could severely weaken Tether’s position.

Industry Response

Tether has not directly responded as of November 30 to Arthur Hayes. However, its leadership continues to emphasize full USDT backing and strong profitability. Circulating supply remains stable around $176 billion, and the stablecoin briefly dipped only to $0.9998 before returning to peg.

Market response was cautious:

• Bitcoin dropped to $48,200 (-1.2%)
• Gold dipped to $2,695/oz (-0.8%)
• USDT redemptions totaled about $200 million
• USDT trading volume declined by 5%

Many on social media dismissed the warnings as recycled “FUD.” Others noted that Tether withstood $10B+ in redemptions during past market shocks. Some even called the timing a “bottom signal,” referencing how similar events preceded price rebounds in the past.

Greg Osuri Adds Fuel

Adding to the scrutiny, Akash Network CEO Greg Osuri publicly supported Hayes’s concerns. Known for his own past losses in the TerraUSD collapse, Osuri echoed the view that Tether’s reserve strategy is risky. He urged users to exit USDT to avoid potential losses.

Osuri pointed out that Tether’s liabilities ($174B) exceed its liquid cash holdings ($139B), and questioned whether secured loans offer real protection. In multiple X posts, he highlighted that no central authority supports Tether, unlike traditional banks.

He also recalculated the risk, noting that Tether’s attestation priced BTC at $114K, not the current $48K. Based on real market prices, Osuri estimated that only a 25% drop in gold and BTC could trigger theoretical insolvency.

Final Thoughts

Tether’s reserve strategy has always been under the microscope. Its expansion into gold and Bitcoin may hedge against falling interest rates, but it also invites new risks. Hayes and Osuri believe those risks are now greater than ever.

For now, USDT remains stable. But growing calls for live transparency and stricter oversight signal that the stablecoin ecosystem may be heading toward a new phase, one where proof of stability becomes as important as utility.

The Talk

Real voices. Real reactions.

KOLsMediaCommunity

LOW

@CryptoHayes why not just park everything in cash if rates are falling? Gold + BTC is a bold bet. -30 % and we’re all rekt, including USDT? Are the whales finally demanding live audits or is this just the classic pre-pump Tether FUD season?

"The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls. https://t.co/ZGhQRP4SVF"— @

mahera

@mahera777

about 8 hours ago

LOW

@CryptoHayes popcorn-worthy tether drama brewing 🍿💰

"The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls. https://t.co/ZGhQRP4SVF"— @

Corners

@Corners589

about 7 hours ago

LOW

@CryptoHayes “Remember that Tether doesn’t buy BTC or gold out of thin air. Those purchases come from their profits and excess reserves, not from newly issued USDT. They only mint when there’s demand, and the BTC/gold allocations are made using the surplus they generate.”

"The Tether folks are in the early innings of running a massive interest rate trade. How I read this audit is they think the Fed will cut rates which crushes their interest income. In response, they are buying gold and $BTC that should in theory moon as the price of money falls. https://t.co/ZGhQRP4SVF"— @

JP_OptionsDeFi

@DefiLtam

about 9 hours ago