Kevin Hassett Leads Predicition Markets As New Fed Chair Candidate

Among these, Kevin Hassett has emerged as the favorite on prediction markets. On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, he now holds 70% odds of being nominated. These odds spiked after Bloomberg reported him as Trump’s likely pick. Earlier in the week, he had only a 25% chance.

This surge reflects over $496,000 in betting volume. In comparison, Waller holds around 13%, and Warsh trails at 10%.

Why Hassett?

Hassett aligns closely with Trump’s economic philosophy. He supports job creation, lower interest rates, and using tariffs to manage inflation. For example, he recently backed a 50-basis-point cut in December. Markets see his potential leadership as bullish for risk assets like stocks and crypto.

Furthermore, Hassett has ties to digital assets. He served on Coinbase’s regulatory advisory board and holds $1–5 million in its stock. In 2025, he also led the White House’s Digital Asset Markets Working Group. This group proposed rules for stablecoins, crypto taxation, and anti-illicit finance measures.

Hassett has also said that Bitcoin could “rewrite the rules of finance.” However, he supports responsible regulation, not unchecked decentralization.

What Markets Are Saying

So far, financial markets have reacted calmly. Analysts suggest that Hassett’s pro-growth stance offers continuity. Stocks and cryptocurrencies may benefit from looser policy under his leadership.

Even so, prediction markets still show a 47% chance that Trump won’t announce a nominee by December 31. This reflects ongoing uncertainty, despite strong signs pointing to Hassett.

An official announcement could come within days. If confirmed, it may shape expectations heading into the Fed’s next meeting in December. For now, the betting odds and the policy signals suggest a significant shift in the Fed’s direction.