Loading Search...
5 Theses for 2026 outlines key crypto trends including prediction markets, compliant DeFi, Bitcoin DeFi growth, and onchain privacy.
5 Theses for 2026 begins with a look back at 2025, which wasn’t loud in the way previous crypto years were.
No single narrative dominated.
Absence of retail frenzy during the year.
No obvious “copy-paste” playbook worked.
This year marked a transition:
Backed with evidence from 5 charts from 2025, here is how I’m positioning for 2026👇
Prediction markets are becoming one of crypto’s clearest use cases -especially as more people look to express views on everything from politics to pop culture with skin in the game.
@Polymarket and @Kalshi‘s partnerships with major news outlets drove a fresh wave of adoption and legitimacy in 2025.
When people think of crypto, they’ll think beyond tokens – and prediction markets will be top of mind.
2026 thesis:
The trenches are thinning.
As regulatory clarity improves and institutional capital edges onchain, liquidity becomes:
The result of this?
Degens won’t disappear but they’ll stop defining the market.
2026 thesis:
Speculation to mature away from trenches and into other subject matters (less memes and to more fundamentally driven assets)
DeFi in 2025 evolved beyond simple yield chasing.
We saw:
As regulatory pressure eases rather than tightens, institutions aren’t asking if they should use DeFi – but how. They will seek alternative measures for higher yield generation, not the trenches, but models which are more familiar (i.e. lending markets)
2026 thesis:
Those that win in the long run are those that speak TradFi language in the DeFi suit – boring on the surface – and unstoppable underneath.
DeFi in 2025 evolved beyond simple yield chasing.
We saw:
As regulatory pressure eases rather than tightens, institutions aren’t asking if they should use DeFi – but how. They will seek alternative measures for higher yield generation, not the trenches, but models which are more familiar (i.e. lending markets)
2026 thesis:
Those that win in the long run are those that speak TradFi language in the DeFi suit – boring on the surface – and unstoppable underneath.
Bitcoin-native DeFi is has constantly been on the innovative ride.
2025 saw:
As regulations ease (banks holding crypto, advisors recommending allocations), demand for Bitcoin exposure grows – but so does the desire for capital efficiency.
And with such moves, money supply fixated on BTC accumulation will seek alternative methods for yield generation apart from holding for price appreciation.
Holding BTC for appreciation alone won’t be enough.
2026 thesis:
Capital anchored to BTC will increasingly seek:
Bitcoin DeFi TVL chart up and to the right.
The steady climb of shielded asset via @Zcash shows that onchain privacy is no longer niche – it’s necessity.
Us humans use traditional banking for 2 main aspects:
As traditional capital moves onchain, it expects the same flexibility and confidentiality as TradFi systems. Likewise, retail users who are willing to come aboard crypto, will also seek familiarity of financial options and security.
2026 thesis:
Expecting more:
One of the biggest mistakes heading into 2026 is looking for new narratives.
The real edge is recognising which 2025 trends are irreversible.
We should position early around structure, compliance, and information advantages.
I’ll be sharing more chart led theses like this as the year unfolds – across DeFi, RWAs, prediction markets, and Bitcoin native finance.
If you’re thinking long term, you’re in the right room.
Curating crypto alfa, insights and new projects so you can make it // Nothing here is financial advice.
https://t.co/O5nXVvJPoL
