Is It End of the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?

Introduction

November 2025: Bitcoin is down 30% from its all-time high. Dominance sits above 58%. The commentariat declares the Bitcoin four-year cycle alive and well. They point to the chart and say it is the classic post-halving comedown and expect two quiet years and a new run later.

They are half right. The old Bitcoin four-year cycle is finished. What replaces it looks nothing like 2013, 2017, or 2021. Today’s market trades on deeper liquidity, new pipes, and balance sheets that do not panic. This cluster breaks down the shift. You will see what changed in 2024–2025, where we sit in the liquidity arc, and how the next legs may unfold without an 80% crash.

Part I: Saying Goodbye to the Old Cycle

From 2012 to 2021, crypto behaved like a machine. The pattern was simple:

• Halving
• A quiet stretch
• A vertical blow-off
• A brutal 70–90% drawdown

This worked because the market was small. Retail drove flows. Supply shocks mattered. Narratives ignited fast. Liquidity vanished faster. Each halving year delivered a powerful impulse. Roughly twelve months later, it peaked. Then the air came out all at once.

In 2013, Bitcoin rallied nearly a hundred times from the lows while in 2017, Bitcoin surged again while Ethereum posted life-changing returns during the ICO boom. In 2021, the move was smaller in multiples yet still huge. Every time, the end looked the same: forced selling, failed collateral, and long winters.

That world is gone. The Bitcoin four-year cycle no longer explains the moves we see now.

Part II: 2024–2025 : A New Market Structure

The 2024 halving arrived in April. Over the next eighteen months, Bitcoin climbed about 740% and printed a new high near 126K in October 2025. Then the market corrected 30%. In past cycles, a 30% break often turned into a 50–70% collapse. This time it did not.

What changed:

• Dominance never fell below the low-50s for long.
• Major ETFs absorbed sell pressure.
• Institutions bought weakness instead of bailing.
• No vertical altseason.
• Corporate and sovereign balance sheets accumulated.

Zoom in and you can call it a top. Zoom out and the structure is different. The Bitcoin four-year cycle relied on thin liquidity and reflexive leverage. Today, the floor sits under larger balance sheets and regulated vehicles. That floor is not perfect. It is stickier.

Part III: Old World vs New Reality

Old world

• Retail and high leverage ran the show.
• Supply shocks and hype ruled the path.
• Regulation was unclear or hostile.
• Liquidity dried up fast.
• 70–90% drawdowns ended each run.

New reality

• Institutional balance sheets define the marginal bid.
• ETFs and ETPs create steady wrappers for demand.
• Layer-2 throughput sits in the hundreds of millions of daily transactions.
• Policy frameworks exist in key regions.
• The deepest correction so far is 30%.

Crypto is not a toy market now. It is becoming financial infrastructure. The network can absorb sellers. The investor mix is wider. The Bitcoin four-year cycle lost its primary driver: a narrow, fragile demand stack.

IC : @therationalroot

Part IV: Where We Are in the Liquidity Cycle

Global liquidity troughed in late 2022. It has trended higher since then. Fiscal dominance, heavy rollover needs, and easy financial conditions keep the tide biased upward. Risk assets respond first. Crypto responds fastest.

Inside this super-cycle, price action looks like a banana on a log chart. The curve has three parts:

Banana 1 — Breakout (Q4 2024 to Q2 2025)
Bitcoin cleared 100K and topped at 126K. That was the first leg.

Banana Middle — Corrective / Re-accumulation (June to December 2025)
This is where we are now. It is long. It is noisy. Expect 30–50% swings, failed rallies, and stubborn ranges. Leverage gets reset. Tourists step back. Strong hands reload.

Banana 2 and 3 — Acceleration and Mania (from Q1 2026)
This is where altcoins finally fire. Dominance fades toward the mid-40s. The risk curve steepens, but within a sturdier structure than 2017 or 2021.

The headline: liquidity still favors higher prices over the next legs. The Bitcoin four-year cycle view misses that the liquidity arc now stretches longer and overlaps regulated demand.

Part V: The Longest Base Builds the Largest Breakout

Markets breathe in phases. They sprint, retrace and compress. Then they expand again. The longer the base, the larger the next move.

Recent foundations are not trivial:

• Major upgrades reduced Layer-2 fees sharply.
• Solana-scale throughput now clears nine figures in daily transactions at sub-cent cost.
• Cross-chain TVL grew, while exploit frequency dropped.
• Global liquidity turned up decisively for the first time since 2021.
• ETF pipelines extend beyond BTC and ETH.
• Nation-state and corporate accumulation keep growing.

Past cycles had rocket fuel and cardboard wings. This cycle has a touch less fuel but titanium wings. The runway is wider. That matters when the next acceleration starts. The Bitcoin four-year cycle assumed a short runway and thin air. Today the runway keeps lengthening.

Part VI: Base Case for 2026

Q4 2025 to Q2 2026

• The corrective middle finishes.
• Bitcoin trades in an 85K–110K range with lower highs and higher lows.
• Dominance softens, but slowly.
• Capital rotates first to large caps and strong execution names.

From Q1 2026

• Altseason shows up in waves.
• Moves are broad, not only memecoins.
• Layer-1s with throughput, DeFi with cash flow, RWA rails, compute, and robotics lead.
• Total altcoin market cap grows from ~1.7T to 4–6T by late 2026 in the base case.

The important part: the final push does not require an 80% crash to end it. Institutional portfolios will scale risk down in steps rather than capitulate. That shifts the next consolidation up the staircase. The Bitcoin four-year cycle expected a cliff. A staircase changes portfolio math.

Part VII: Risks That Still Matter

A new structure does not remove risk. It reshapes it.

• Policy shock: Adverse rulings, delayed approvals, or tax changes can slow inflows.
• Liquidity shock: Funding stress or a fast policy turn can drain risk appetite.
• Execution risk: Protocols that fail to ship will underperform even with a strong tide.
• Complacency: A sticky floor is not a guarantee. 30% can become 45% if positioning is heavy.
• Crowding: ETF ownership concentration may create choppy flows around macro dates.

These risks argue for staged entries, diversified bets, and respect for ranges. They do not re-install the Bitcoin four-year cycle as the master template.

Part VIII: What This Means for Strategies

For Bitcoin

• Treat 85K–110K as an accumulation band until the range resolves.
• Expect fake breakdowns and fast reclaims.
• Respect event risk around macro prints and ETF flow dates.

Ethereum and large caps

• Favor assets with clear catalysts: fee cuts, restaking revenue, or ETF milestones.
• Use pullbacks during Bitcoin dominance spikes to build positions.
• Track on-chain activity per dollar of market cap.

Mid caps and sectors

• DeFi with real fees, RWA issuers with compliant rails, and compute assets with demand pipelines lead.
• Avoid empty narratives. Focus on cash flow, costs, and throughput.

Risk management

• Map invalidation levels before entries.
• Stagger buys.
• Take partial profits into vertical moves.
• Hold a cash sleeve for event-driven dips.

Strategies that worked in the Bitcoin four-year cycle era were binary. Today the winners compound in steps.

Part IX: Why the Old Model Broke

Three drivers ended the Bitcoin four-year cycle:

1. Investor mix: Retail dominance faded. Institutions and ETFs now supply a steady bid.
2. Infrastructure: L2s, better custody, and cleaner fiat ramps reduced fragility.
3. Policy rails: Clearer regimes replaced ad-hoc enforcement. Money hates uncertainty. It has less of it now.

The machine that produced 12-month blow-offs and 80% winter crashes needed thin pipes. The pipes got thick. The timing got messy. The amplitude flattened. The duration extended.

Part X: The Call in One Page

• The Bitcoin four-year cycle template is no longer the base case.
• The market is mid-cycle within a longer liquidity arc.
• The current 30% drawdown fits a re-accumulation phase, not a terminal break.
• A broad altcoin advance starts only after this base is done.
• The next bear market starts from a higher step because forced retail capitulation is no longer the entire exit.
• Risk still exists. It is less binary, more rotational, and more path-dependent.

Conclusion

The four-year rhythm did not die of natural causes. Maturity killed it. The October 2025 high was not a classic cycle top. It marked the end of the first banana leg and the start of institutional accumulation for the next phase.

Act II is loading. The base is wide. The pipes are ready. The balance sheets are patient. Liquidity is still rising on a multi-year view. Policy is building a runway instead of roadblocks.

History will not repeat. It will rhyme, louder and longer. The Bitcoin four-year cycle belongs to a market that no longer exists. What comes next is a longer, staggered super-cycle that climbs a staircase, pauses on landings, and then climbs again.

Higher prices are still ahead.